Cuban officials on Monday lowered flags before dawn to mourn 32 security officers they say were killed in the U.S. weekend strike in Venezuela, Cuba’s closest ally, as residents of the island nation wonder what the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro means for their future.
The two governments are so close that Cuban soldiers and security agents were often the Venezuelan president’s bodyguards, and Venezuela’s petroleum has kept the economically ailing island limping along for years. Cuban authorities over the weekend said 32 people were killed in the surprise attack, but gave no further details.
The Trump administration has warned outright that toppling Maduro will help advance another decades-long goal: Dealing a blow to the Cuban government. Severing Cuba from Venezuela could have disastrous consequences for its leaders, who on Saturday called for the international community to stand up to “state terrorism.”
On Saturday, Trump said the ailing Cuban economy will be further battered by Maduro’s ouster.
“It’s going down,” Trump said of Cuba. “It’s going down for the count.”
‘I’ll go fight’
Many observers say Cuba, an island of about 10 million people, exerted a remarkable degree of influence over Venezuela, an oil-rich nation with three times as many people.
At the same time, Cubans have long been plagued by constant blackouts and shortages of basic foods. And after the attack, they woke to the once-unimaginable possibility of an even grimmer future.
“I can’t talk. I have no words,” 75-year-old Berta Luz Sierra Molina said as she sobbed and placed a hand over her face.
Even though 63-year-old Regina Mendez is too old to join the Cuban military, she said “We have to stand strong.”
“Give me a rifle, and I’ll go fight,” Mendez said.
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Maduro’s government was shipping an average of 35,000 barrels of oil daily over the last three months, about a quarter of total demand, said Jorge Pinon, a Cuban energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute.
“The question to which we don’t have an answer, which is critical: Is the U.S. going to allow Venezuela to continue supplying Cuba with oil?” he said.
Pinon noted that Mexico once supplied Cuba with 22,000 barrels of oil a day before it dropped to 7,000 barrels after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in early September.
“I don’t see Mexico jumping in right now,” Pinon said. “The U.S. government would go bonkers.”
Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist at American University in Washington, said that “blackouts have been significant, and that is with Venezuela still sending some oil.”
He said Cuba could lose that supply soon, which he suggested would be “a catastrophe.”
Will Russia fill oil gap?
Pinon noted that Cuba doesn’t have the money to buy oil on the international market.
“The only ally that they have left out there with oil is Russia,” he said, noting that the country sends Cuba about two million barrels a year.
“Russia has the capability to fill the gap. Do they have the political commitment, or the political desire to do so? I don’t know,” he said.
Torres also questioned whether Russia would extend a hand.
“Meddling with Cuba could jeopardize your negotiation with the U.S. around Ukraine,” he said. “Why would you do it? Ukraine is far more important.”
Torres says Cuba should open its doors to the private sector and reduce its public sector, a move that could help prompt China to step in and help.
“Do they have an alternative? I don’t think they do,” he said.
