The surprise ousting of China’s highest-ranked general has the world’s largest military in turmoil and leaves the future of the Central Military Commission uncertain following years of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s sweeping purges.
The ensuing investigation into Zhang Youxia — who was vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the military body that oversees the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with its two million personnel — leaves Xi almost alone at the helm of the military.
Despite no one outside the leadership knowing for sure what led to the unprecedented crackdown, it raises questions about how the army will operate going forward and what it may mean for regional stability, including China’s sights on Taiwan.
“This is a Shakespearean moment in Chinese politics,” said Jonathan Czin, a former senior China analyst at the CIA who spent two years as China director at the U.S. National Security Council.
On Jan. 24, the country’s Defence Ministry announced that Zhang and Liu Zhenli, another senior general and CMC member, were under investigation for “violations of discipline and law,” leaving a seven-person body whittled down to two, one of whom is Xi.
The following day, the Liberation Army Daily, the official paper of the armed forces, published an editorial accusing Liu and Zhang of corruption and betraying “the trust and expectations” of the Chinese Communist Party, emphasizing that “no one, regardless of rank or position, will be spared.”
‘Pitiless with your friends’
If anyone was seemingly immune, it would have been Zhang. After all, he and Xi have a long history. Their fathers served together in China’s civil war that led to Mao Zedong’s Communist forces taking power in 1949. Zhang and Xi, who have known each other since they were young, were also friends and allies.
“It’s one thing to be merciless towards your enemies. It’s another one to be pitiless with your friends,” said Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., who notes that the one clear message coming out of Zhang’s investigation is “there is no safe zone” in Xi’s anti-corruption campaign.
While the reasoning behind the sacking is anyone’s guess, with party machinations notoriously opaque, the move cements Xi in an “unassailable position,” said Ja Ian Chong, assistant professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
“A lot more will rest on the top leadership. A lot more will rest on Xi’s likes and dislikes,” he said.
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has enacted sweeping reforms to the PLA in order to transform it into a modern force, including tackling corruption. Zhang was one of the people chosen to lead that transformation.
Most recently, 10 Central Committee officials were expelled at the Chinese Communist Party’s fourth plenum in October, most of whom were military.
For many, the investigation into Zhang hits differently than the previous purges, considering his lifelong ties to the president.
Some China watchers suspect corruption isn’t the primary motivation, instead signalling an attempt by Xi to consolidate power, said Kevin Luo, an assistant professor at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities in Minneapolis who focuses on Chinese and authoritarian politics.
Luo said streamlining the chain of command and making sure the party has the ability to “command the gun” are driving the move, further exerting Xi’s own control on all party apparatuses, including military and political institutions within the party.
“It’s more about maintaining discipline, making sure people are on the same page,” he said.
The Taiwan question
Whatever the motivations, the military is undoubtedly dealing with a lot of “uncertainty,” other observers said.
Shanshan Mei, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation think-tank in Washington, D.C., who’s focused on tracking the leadership and organization of the PLA, said the latest move will have a “ripple effect throughout the armed forces.”
“This is a blow to the morale [of] the troops,” she said, arguing the purge may stall Xi’s sights on Taiwan, considering the army’s command structure has been upended.
Mei said any military movement on Taiwan would not be a good time for China “when you’ve just made some huge disruptions.”
WATCH | The world is watching as China overhauls its military leadership:
China’s most senior military leadership is being restructured, whittled down to just two members. The move concentrates control of the People’s Liberation Army to just Chinese President Xi Jinping and one military general — and the change is drawing attention from around the world.
Some, like Drew Thompson, a former China specialist at the Pentagon who recently wrote a Substack article on his week accompanying Zhang on a visit to the U.S. in 2012, say Zhang urged caution on seizing the island, considering he was one of just a few military leaders who saw combat, having fought in the Vietnam War.
“I think he was the one active-duty PLA officer who could give Xi the best, most objective advice about PLA military capabilities, including the PLA’s shortcomings and, crucially, the human cost of military conflict,” Thompson wrote.
As a result, Zhang’s ousting could be seen as a step in removing that caution.
Czin, with the Brookings Institution, said the PLA is large enough that a leadership shakeup may not affect its operational capacity, pointing to the December military exercise around Taiwan following the latest plenum purges.
“It’s a big enough organization that they’re able to walk and chew gum at the same time,” he said.
The problem is it’s still unclear who would be in charge of the PLA’s day-to-day operations now that Zhang is gone.
WATCH | Xi Jinping strengthens his power in China:
Chinese President Xi Jinping appears poised to hold onto his position for an exceptional third term after consolidating power over a number of years. CBC News takes a closer look at the power dynamics at play and what Xi’s solidified power could mean for the rest of the world.
