The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy to 4.2 percent in 2026. The update appeared in the October 2026 World Economic Outlook released on October 13 in Bangkok, Thailand.
The Fund previously projected 4.1 percent growth for 2026 in its July report. It left the 2027 forecast unchanged at 4.3 percent. Meanwhile, it estimated 2025 growth at 4.0 percent.
The IMF attributed the upward revision to greater macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade. Nigeria, as an energy exporter, benefited from these conditions. As a result, the Fund projected a modest acceleration in growth over the next two years.
Silvana Tenreyro, IMF Director of Research, presented the report titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices.” She noted that global growth stood at 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. For sub-Saharan Africa, the Fund projected 4.5 percent growth in both years.
Despite the improved headline figures, the IMF highlighted ongoing challenges for ordinary Nigerians. Higher prices for essential goods threatened to deepen poverty and food insecurity.
Deniz Igan, a division chief in the IMF Research Department, addressed the issue during the outlook briefing. “While the growth held up in Nigeria, given energy exporter, poverty rates are still very high, and we are very mindful that the population is suffering when it comes, especially to security, with also risks from El Niño,” she said.
Igan added that policymakers needed to meet immediate household needs, particularly on food and energy security, while protecting medium-term economic stability.
The Fund recommended temporary cash transfers to vulnerable households. It stressed that such support must remain fiscally sustainable through better spending efficiency and stronger revenue collection.
The projections came during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Officials noted that inflation was expected to ease gradually, yet living costs continued to pressure many families.
