London-based The Economist reported on 1 October 2026 that President Bola Tinubu could secure re-election in the January 2027 presidential poll despite widespread public discontent. The magazine published its assessment under the title “Nigerians dislike their president, but may re-elect him anyway.”
The Economist noted that Tinubu appeared unworried about his prospects. He returned from Paris on 29 September after a month-long stay in Europe and had extended what officials called a working holiday. The magazine described his calm as surprising given the security crisis and economic pressures facing the country.
The publication stated that Nigeria faced a worsening security situation. Bandits and insurgents kidnapped and killed people on a near-daily basis. It highlighted Borno State in the north-east, where an insurgency has lasted two decades. Jihadist factions fight the government and each other while funding operations through kidnapping and looting.
Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, brought a degree of stability. Inflation fell, government revenue rose and investment improved. Yet the magazine reported that these changes had not improved life for most of Nigeria’s 240 million people. Annual inflation stood at around 15 per cent in August, with food inflation near 20 per cent.
The Economist identified several reasons why dissatisfaction might not unseat the incumbent. It said incumbents in recent Nigerian elections held advantages through ruling-party machinery and resources.
Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks said: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.” Former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar had not formed a joint ticket.
Religion also featured. Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima are both Muslims. Cheta Nwanze, head of SBM Intelligence, said: “The fact that the president has stuck with the Muslim-Muslim ticket resonates with quite a number of people.”
Low voter turnout in insecure areas and political cynicism further limited opposition gains. The magazine concluded that these dynamics explained why Tinubu felt secure enough for extended stays abroad.
